The conventional wisdom says this will be a close race. The conventional wisdom is wrong.
Here's my prediction for the 2026 Senate outcome:
Democrats: 52 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
The three races everyone is getting wrong:
1. OHIO - Currently rated "Lean R" by most analysts. I'm calling it for the Democrat. The candidate has been quietly building a coalition that polls aren't capturing. Rural union voters are breaking differently than expected.
2. FLORIDA - Everyone has written this off as Safe R. It's not. The demographic shifts in Miami-Dade have accelerated, and the insurance crisis is creating a new swing voter bloc that didn't exist in 2024.
3. TEXAS - Not a flip, but closer than anyone expects. Within 3 points. This matters for 2028.
Wild card: An independent candidate in one New England state will caucus with neither party initially, creating chaos in January.
Check back when this unlocks. The receipts will be right here.