Prediction made: December 2024
Prediction: 2025 will be the hottest year in recorded human history, as measured by NASA GISS global temperature anomaly.
Specific metrics:
- Global mean temperature anomaly will exceed +1.45°C above the 1880-1920 baseline
- At least 3 months will set individual monthly records
- The previous record (set in 2024) will be exceeded by at least 0.08°C
Confidence level: 85%
Why I'm making this prediction:
- El Niño patterns
- Record ocean heat content
- Reduced aerosol pollution from shipping
- Continued greenhouse gas accumulation
This isn't a political statement. It's a falsifiable scientific prediction. Check the data when this unlocks.
If I'm right, it's evidence that climate models are tracking reality.
If I'm wrong, I want to understand why.